Beirut: The final time Syrian President Bashar Assad was in deep trouble was 10 years in the past, on the top of the nation’s civil conflict, when his forces misplaced management over elements of the biggest metropolis, Aleppo, and his opponents have been closing in on the capital, Damascus.
Again then, he was rescued by his chief worldwide backer, Russia, and longtime regional ally Iran, which together with Lebanon’s highly effective Hezbollah militia helped Assad’s forces retake Aleppo, tipping the conflict firmly in his favour.
Now, as insurgents pursue a shock offensive that rapidly captured not simply Aleppo, however the important thing metropolis of Hama and a string of different cities throughout the nation’s northwest, the Syrian chief seems to be largely on his personal.
Russia is preoccupied with its conflict in Ukraine, and Hezbollah, which at one level despatched hundreds of its fighters to shore up Assad’s forces, has been weakened by a yearlong battle with Israel. Iran, in the meantime, has seen its proxies throughout the area degraded by Israeli airstrikes.
Furthermore, Syrian troops are exhausted and hollowed out by 13 years of conflict and financial crises, with little will left to battle.
So will Assad’s rule collapse within the close to future? “The approaching days and weeks will probably be crucial in figuring out whether or not the insurgent offensive poses an existential menace to the Assad regime or whether or not the regime manages to regain its footing and push again on latest insurgent features,” mentioned Mona Yacoubian, an analyst with the US Institute for Peace.
“Whereas weakened and distracted, Assad’s allies are unlikely to easily cave to the rebels’ offensive,” she wrote in an evaluation.
Not out of the woods
Till just lately, it appeared that Syria’s president was nearly out of the woods. He by no means actually received the long-running civil conflict, and enormous elements of the nation have been nonetheless exterior his management.
However after 13 years of battle, it appeared that the worst was over, and that the world was able to neglect. As soon as considered as a regional pariah, Assad noticed Arab nations warming as much as him once more, renewing ties and reinstating Syria’s membership within the Arab League. Earlier this 12 months, Italy additionally determined to reopen its embassy in Damascus after a decade of strained relations.
Within the aftermath of one of many world’s largest humanitarian crises, help teams and worldwide donors in Syria started pivoting towards spending extra on the nation’s restoration than on emergency help, offering a lifeline for Syrians and restoring primary companies.
However then the sudden offensive launched by insurgents on Nov. 27 reignited the conflict and caught everybody off guard with its scope and velocity.
It additionally left Syria’s neighbours anxious, cautious that violence and refugees may spill throughout borders and frightened concerning the rising affect of Islamist teams, a significant concern for many of Syria’s Arab neighbours.
Geopolitical shifts
Analysts say a confluence of geopolitical developments starting with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, adopted by the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza that began on Oct. 7, 2023, helped create the chance for Assad’s opponents to pounce.
Because the rebels superior this previous week, Syrian forces appeared to soften away, placing up no resistance, with a number of reviews of defection. Russian forces carried out occasional airstrikes. Hezbollah’s chief in Lebanon mentioned the group will proceed to help Syria, however made no point out of sending fighters once more.
“The insurgent assault underscores the precarious nature of regime management in Syria,” Yacoubian wrote.
“Its sudden eruption and the velocity with which insurgent teams managed to overhaul Aleppo … Expose the complicated dynamics that reside just under the floor in Syria and might rework superficial calm into main battle.” Aron Lund, a Syria knowledgeable with Century Worldwide, a New York-based assume tank and a researcher with the Swedish Protection Analysis Company, mentioned the developments in Syria are a geopolitical catastrophe for Russia and Iran.
“They too have been absolutely shocked by what occurred, and so they have all types of useful resource constraints,” together with Russia’s conflict in Ukraine and Hezbollah’s losses in Lebanon and Syria.
Exhausted and damaged
Whereas the nation’s battle traces have been largely stalemated since 2020, Syria’s financial woes have solely multiplied prior to now few years.
The imposition of US sanctions, a banking disaster in neighbouring Lebanon and an earthquake final 12 months contributed to the truth that nearly all Syrians face excessive monetary hardship.
That has brought about state establishments and salaries to wither.
“If you cannot pay your troopers a residing wage, then perhaps you may’t anticipate them to remain and battle when hundreds of Islamists storm” their cities, Lund mentioned. “It’s simply an exhausted, damaged and dysfunctional regime” to begin with.
A part of the insurgents’ try to reassert their grip on Aleppo, the town the place they have been ousted in 2016 after a grueling navy marketing campaign, was to concern a name to authorities troopers and safety companies to defect, granting them what they known as “safety playing cards,” which provide some kind of amnesty and assurances that they will not be hunted down.
The spokesman for the insurgents, Hassan Abdul-Ghani, mentioned greater than 1,600 troopers have utilized for the playing cards over two days in Aleppo metropolis.
A whole lot of defectors lined up exterior metropolis police stations Thursday to register their particulars with the insurgents.
Hossam al-Bakr, 33, initially from Hama who served in Damascus and defected 4 years earlier to Aleppo, mentioned he got here to “settle his place” and get a brand new ID.
The laminated card handed out to every defector was titled the “defection card.” It confirmed the title, ID quantity and place of service of every defector. It’s issued by “The final command: Army Operations room.” On Thursday, Maj. Mohamed Ghoneim, who was in control of registering the defectors, mentioned greater than 1,000 troopers or cops got here to register. Some who have been in possession of their official weapons handed them over, he added.
“There are hundreds who wish to apply,” he mentioned.
Charles Lister, a longtime Syria knowledgeable, mentioned whereas many of the worldwide group has written off the battle as both frozen or completed, the armed opposition has by no means given up and has been coaching for such a state of affairs for years.
A rag tag group of militias, stricken by infighting and rivalry, spent years getting ready and organising, propelled by a dream to regain management of territory from Assad.
“The regime has been extra susceptible during the last 12 months or two than it has maybe been all through everything of the battle,” Lister mentioned. “And it has gotten used to the concept that if it might probably wait issues out, it can in the end show to be the victor.
