When the outcomes of the Lok Sabha elections sharply contradicted predictions made by a number of exit polls, criticism surged, with some even calling for a ban on exit polls altogether. Axis My India chief Pradeep Gupta stood by the accuracy of exit polls and provided a proof behind the predictions going off the mark. He identified {that a} misjudgement in useful resource allocation skewed the predictions.
The 55-year-old pollster turned the main focus of controversy when the opposition accused him of deliberately exhibiting a clear sweep for the BJP to affect the inventory market. Following the announcement of the exit polls, the market surged to a report excessive however crashed on the day of counting.
In an interview with information company PTI, Gupta mentioned that underestimating Uttar Pradesh over the past three phases of the elections was an costly error. This miscalculation occurred as a result of they redirected their prime assets from the essential Hindi-heartland state to Odisha, based mostly on errors made in earlier polls.
The Predictions Of Lok Sabha Outcomes 2024
Axis My India exit ballot forecasted the BJP-led Nationwide Democratic Alliance (NDA) would safe between 361 and 400 seats within the Lok Sabha elections. It additionally predicted the celebration establishing victory on 67 out of 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh.
Nonetheless, the precise outcomes introduced on June four revealed the BJP successful solely 240 seats, falling in need of the bulk, with Uttar Pradesh being the largest disappointment for the celebration because it received simply 33 seats.
No Error In Methodology
It’s not the methodology that contributed to the off the chart predictions however relatively with how assets have been deployed in key states, mentioned the chief of Axis My India exit ballot.
“We now have a foolproof methodology used for predicting elections. It was not our methodology which went fallacious. I made a mistake in deployment of my senior assets and took essential states like Uttar Pradesh calmly,” Gupta informed PTI.
He highlighted, “The path to energy in Delhi (Centre) is thru UP.”
Claiming that the three states that added to the fallacious predictions have been UP, West Bengal and Maharashtra, he mentioned, we have been proved fallacious.
Gupta mentioned that 41 out of 80 seats have been contested within the fifth, sixth, and seventh phases. Throughout the identical interval, elections in Haryana and Delhi have been held concurrently, together with Punjab and Himachal Pradesh within the seventh part.
He asserted that though the NDA had fashioned the federal government, there was an enormous hole between the variety of seats the exit polls predicted and the precise variety of seats the BJP gained.
Gupta defined the useful resource deployment technique that the corporate adopted, he mentioned that 31 assets as observers, trainers, or coaches have been overlooking varied states however ignored Uttar Pradesh. He mentioned that some professionals have been transferred from UP to West Bengal, however the ballot violence affected the interview price.
(Based mostly on inputs from PTI)
